ELECTION 2024: Low Turnout for Big Decisions in Tuesday's Primary Election
A small number of voters has an outsized impact on the California's future
Even a huge state-wide bond measure and important local races couldn’t inspire most Californians to vote this time around, with only 20% of the electorate participating so far. San Bernardino’s turnout was even lower, with only 15% casting a ballot.
Results from Tuesday’s election are trickling in slowly. Mail-in ballots had to be postmarked on the March 5 election day, but votes can arrive at the registrar as late as March 12. According to the Secretary of State's website, the results will be certified on April 12, but the outcome of many races is clear, with a few notable exceptions.
The top two vote-getters in the state and congressional races will face each other in November’s general election, but the board of supervisor contests are decided with a vote total of over 50%, going for a runoff only if no candidate earns a majority. All candidates in San Bernardino’s race for supervisor were decided with a clear majority.
San Bernardino Measure W
A win for Measure W would repeal the special property tax funding the fire protection district.
It looks as if Measure W is going down in flames, with only 44% of voters giving the measure the nod. More than 50% of voters would have to vote yes for it to pass, and with over 56% voting against it so far, it’s likely the tax will stay in place.
This was the third attempt in four years to get rid of the special tax that covers the FP-5 service zone, which increased from $108 to $171.85 a parcel from when it started in 2006.
Desert Trumpet covered Measure W here.
California Proposition 1
As of this writing, it appears Proposition 1 will pass, but only by a small margin — and that could change.
Proposition 1 is the statewide ballot measure to strengthen California’s Mental Health Services Act (MHSA) approved by voters in 2004. A win would mean $6.4 billion in bonds to create 10,000 more beds in treatment centers throughout the state, divided between 4,350 housing units, 6,800 in-patient mental health beds, and 26,700 outpatient treatment places. This bond will focus funds on addressing mental health issues of the unhoused or those at risk of losing their homes, a change from MHSA’s current policy of supporting any Californian needing help.
Opponents argued that the shift in focus to homeless services and involuntary or forced treatment could result in fewer services for people of color and LGBTQ+ Californians if local treatment facilities don’t have the flexibility to address local needs.
The California Budget and Policy Center covered the changes to the MHSA if Proposition 1 passes here.
As of Saturday, the proposition was winning statewide by a very narrow margin: 50.3% v. 49.7%. San Bernardino voters are rejecting it 57% to 43%.
San Bernardino Board of Supervisors
Supervisor Dawn Rowe of District 3 has a comfortable lead in her bid for one more term as a San Bernardino County Supervisor. As of Saturday, Rowe had 60% of the vote, with her strongest challenger, Chris Carrillo, winning just 21% of the vote.
In the Supervisor’s race, a vote count over 50% wins the position. A run-off would only happen if none of the candidates hit that mark.
Supervisor Paul Cook of District 1 is in a similar position, having won 65% of the vote. Cook’s strongest challenger, Marcus Hernandez, garnered just 14%.
Supervisor Joe Baca of District 5 ran unopposed.
Superior Court Judge
Although the race for Superior Court Judge doesn’t usually get a lot of notice, this one had an unusual twist; Dieter Carlos Dammeier, a former police attorney and current administrative law judge, was running for the position in two jurisdictions —San Bernardino and Merced counties.
Apparently, the voters agreed with Douglas Poston of the San Bernardino County Supervising Deputy District Attorneys Association in Joshua Tree, who called it “very misleading to the public in both counties.”
Dieter’s opponent in the San Bernardino race, prosecutor Michelle Lauron, has received 77% of the vote so far.
CA State Senate District 19
With only two candidates running, both will move on to the November election. The current vote tallies suggest that incumbent Republican Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh, with 53% of the vote, is favored to win against challenger Democrat Lisa Middleton, former Mayor of Palm Springs, at 47%. Results in San Bernardino County show Bogh with 64% of the vote and Middleton at 36%.
Desert Trumpet covered the candidates here.
CA State Assembly, Districts 47 and 34
In the race for Assembly District 47, Republican Greg Wallis has 48% of the vote, with Democrat and former Palm Springs Mayor Christy Holstege just one percentage point behind at 47%. Democrat Jamie Swain is out of the race after getting just 5% of the vote. It looks like the Swain voters will decide this contest in November. San Bernardino County results reflected the Republican majority in the County: Wallis 63%, Holstege 33%, and Swain 4%.
AD 47 covers Calimesa, Yucaipa, Idyllwild, Banning, Morongo Valley, Pioneertown, Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Cathedral City, Desert Hot Springs, and Yucca Valley.
Incumbent Republican Tom Lackey won 67% to Democrat Ricardo Ortega’s 33% in Assembly District 34, which covers Twentynine Palms, Landers, Barstow, Baker, Victorville, Big Bear Lake, California City, and parts of Lancaster and Palmdale. San Bernardino County results echoed statewide results, with Lackey at 67%, and Ortega 33%.
Desert Trumpet questioned the candidates about their priorities and plans here.
The top two vote-getters in each race will go head-to-head in the November general election.
Congressional Races
Senate: Full-term and short-term seat
Although it was a crowded field of twenty-seven candidates, this was one race that could be called early. The candidates are neck and neck, with Democrat Adam B. Schiff at 33% and former baseball star Republican Steve Garvey at 32%. The two will face each other in the general election.
These same two candidates are also winning for the short-term seat, with Garvey at 34% and Schiff at 30% as of Saturday evening. If you find this confusing, you’re not alone.
The races are for the same Senate seat left vacant when Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) died. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed Laphonza Butler to the seat, but she decided not to run to cover the full term in the special election.
Kim Alexander, founder and president of a non-profit with the mission of improving voting in the state, told the Washington Post, “I get confused about what’s going on, and I’m the head of the California Voter Foundation.”
The election was shaped by Schiff’s controversial funding of ads for Garvey, framing him as an ultra-conservative supporter of former President Donald J. Trump. The move proved to be a winning strategy against other Democratic candidates, Representatives Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who came out of the race with 15% and 9%, respectively. Schiff got the race he hoped for with an opponent on the opposite end of the political spectrum.
House of Representatives — District 23
Republican incumbent Jay Obernolte is leading with 64% to Democrat Derek Marshall’s 36%. They were the only candidates in the race, and both will move on to the general election.
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As someone who worked the polls on March 5 I can attest to the very low turnout. I find this sad, since our right to vote is a critical part of a working democracy in this country. Thank you for your continued efforts to inform and activate our local political power.